Baba ng Top 5?

Pagbaba mula sa Kalye

Si Ace Bailey ay dati’y isang golden boy ng 2024 NBA Draft. Nakasama sa top three sa bawat mock draft, may mga scout na naghihintay para sa kanyang workout. Ngayon? Wala na siya sa top five. Sa ilalim ng isang high-profile meeting kasama ang Philadelphia 76ers—oo, sila mismo na may #3 pick—sumalakay siya.

Naririnig ko ito dati: ang charisma ng player laban sa organizational pragmatism.

Bakit Siya Lumayo?

Hindi siya karaniwang prospect na nag-iiwan. May taas na 2.02m (6’7”), may average na 17.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, at near-league blocks at steals noong nakaraang season sa Rutgers. Elite versatility—kung minsan pa lang walang polish.

Pero narito ang mas interesante: iniiwasan niya ang mga team nang walang paliwanag.

Isang anonymous Western scout sabi: “Hindi siya nagtratrabaho nung drill—dumadaan parin siya gaya ng Friday night sa club.” Hindi reckless—tanging… di-karaniwan.

Tunay na Riso ng Draft: Kakaunting Tiwala

Sa analytics, hindi mo ma-modelo ang hindi mo ma-measure. At hindi sinukat si Bailey—at workouts o interviews.

Ang mensahe ay malinaw: “Hindi ka gusto ako hanggang hindi ka handa mag-commit.”

Ngunit ito’y bumabagsak kapag iba pang prospects ang nagpupursige araw-araw para makakuha ng playing time.

Gumawa ako ng simulation gamit historical data mula sa mga katulad niyang case (tulad ni T.J. McConnell). Ang resulta? Ang mga player na lumayo mula early access ay bumababa ng average 9 spots bago matapos ang draft.

Ngayon ay higit pa kay Bailey umabot sa outside first round—not because he can’t play, but because he didn’t show up kung kailangan talaga.

Ano ba talaga ang ‘Growth Path’?

The real issue isn’t ego—it’s strategy. Ang kanyang reps ay gustong garantiyadong minutes at clear role bago sumali anumang team. Meron itong sense—but only if willing to do what owners won’t: give up control early on trade value or roster flexibility.

Walang team gusto ibigay ang shot creation rights kay someone who hasn’t proven consistency under pressure—and hasn’t even shown up for practice yet.

Ito’y hindi galit—it’s strategic patience… hanggang maging strategic silence.

Final Projection: Round 1, Late Pick (18–24)

The numbers say Round 1—but only if he lands on a team craving versatility over prestige.* The Utah Jazz still have interest,* pero system nila values process-oriented players—and Bailey doesn’t fit their mold yet.* The Celtics might be intrigued… but they’re risk-averse this year.* The best bet? A mid-tier contender looking for upside without asking too many questions—someone like Detroit or Cleveland could take him knowing full well he’ll need coaching more than conditioning.

I’d place him between #18 and #24—if no one panics first.* it’s not where he should be—but it may be where market logic demands.* The question isn’t whether Bailey can play—it’s whether anyone believes he’ll ever get on court again.* together we’ll see how much trust matters more than talent.