Rockets Won’t Trade Fred VanVleet: Data Says He’s Too Valuable to Let Go

The Numbers Don’t Lie

I’ve spent years building predictive models that weigh player impact across pace, efficiency, and situational performance. When I looked at Fred VanVleet’s playoff metrics — 18.7 points per game on 43% shooting, including a blistering 43.5% from three — I didn’t need to run another simulation.

The Rockets aren’t trading him because they’re sentimental or stubborn. They’re doing it because their data shows losing VanVleet would drop their win probability by nearly 12% in high-leverage games.

Why No Negotiations?

Ben Dubose confirmed it on Locked On Rockets: VanVleet won’t be part of any trade talks. Not because he’s untouchable — but because the team knows his role is more than just scoring.

He runs pick-and-roll sets with precision (player efficiency rating of 129 this postseason), defends multiple positions, and takes pressure off younger guards like Alperen Şengün during crunch time.

To trade him now would be like removing the engine from a Formula One car mid-season — theoretically possible, but catastrophically inefficient.

The Real Cost of ‘Quick Fixes’

There’s always pressure to flip assets before free agency or for draft capital. But let me remind you: this isn’t college ball where every player can be replaced like chess pieces.

VanVleet has played over 200 minutes in playoff series this year — averaging nearly 40 minutes per game while maintaining elite shot selection and decision-making under fatigue.

That kind of durability? It doesn’t come cheap… or easy.

A Strategic Holdover in an Uncertain Market

In my weekly report last week, I flagged that teams trading core players for immediate returns often end up worse off within two seasons due to roster instability and lack of cohesion.

The Rockets are avoiding that trap by sticking with what works — even if it means passing on flashy offers.

They know: one data-driven season might cost them two championships down the line if they mismanage key contributors like VanVleet.

And yes — I’m wearing my usual suit while typing this… but when I leave the office? You’ll find me at Hackney Fields running pickup games where everyone plays hard… including me.