ESPN’s Draft Crystal Ball: How Accurate Were The Final Projections?

The Hits That Made Scouts Look Like Psychics

Let’s start with the easy wins: Atlanta nabbing Zaccharie Risacher at #1 was the most predictable pick since LeBron. Washington’s selection of Alex Sarr (#2) and Houston grabbing Reed Sheppard (#3) followed the script like obedient algorithms. But here’s what fascinates me—San Antonio’s double play at #4 (Stephon Castle) and #8 (Tidjane Salaun, who jumped four spots from projections). Gregg Popovich’s front office operates with the precision of a Swiss watchmaker.

Where The Madness Began

At pick #5, Detroit decided to ignore my carefully crafted analytics models by selecting Matas Buzelis over projected choice Ron Holland. Cue my dramatic reenactment of their war room conversation: “Advanced stats? We don’t need no stinking advanced stats!” This became our first major deviation in a draft where 14 teams went off-script—a 47% rebellion rate that’ll give ESPN’s data team nightmares.

Steals and Head-Scratchers

The real entertainment came mid-lottery:

• Memphis at #9 took Cody Williams when everyone expected Zach Edey (who tumbled to #17)
• Chicago pivoted from Buzelis to defensive pest Devin Carter at #11
• Miami made Carlton Carrington the draft’s biggest climber (+5 spots)

My personal favorite? Utah trading back into the first round to snag Isaiah Collier at #29—a move as sneaky as Danny Ainge smuggling contraband snacks into a luxury tax meeting.

The Verdict on Predictive Models

After tracking all 30 picks against projections, here’s my spicy take: current draft models overweight combine measurements and underweight game film. Sacramento picking Holland at #13 over Carter proves teams still value athletic ceilings more than ready-made skills. As someone who bet heavily on Dalton Knecht landing top-10 (he went #17), I’ll be sulking in my Synergy Sports tape library until Summer League.