Dylan Harper: The Data-Backed Case for 2025's Top Guard Prospect | NBA Draft Analysis
Dylan Harper by the Numbers
When my algorithm spits out a prospect comp blending James Harden’s footwork with Deron Williams’ physicality, I pay attention. At 6’4.5” with a grown man’s frame (213 lbs), Harper’s biomechanical profile suggests he’ll be posting up PGs by his second contract.
Offensive Breakdown
- Paint Domination: 48.4% FG on drives (NCAA 92nd percentile)
- Pick-and-Roll IQ: Uses screens like a chess master - see GIF 3 where he rejects the screen for an and-1
- Uncommon Strength: Absorbs contact better than any guard since rookie Marcus Smart (12.7% FTA rate)
Advanced Stat Spotlight: His 1.18 points per possession as PNR ballhandler would rank top-5 among current NBA starters.
Defensive Potential
That 209cm wingspan shows in passing lanes (1.4 SPG), but the tape reveals nuance:
“His closeout speed (3.16s 3⁄4 court sprint) allows hedge-and-recover tactics rarely seen at this level” - My scouting notes from Rutgers vs Purdue
Areas for Growth
While his stepback three mirrors Harden’s aesthetically, the results vary:
| Shot Type | Percentage | NBA Equivalent |
|---|---|---|
| Catch-and-Shoot | 33.3% | Below Average |
| Pull-up | 29.1% | Developmental |
Why Spurs Fans Should Be Thrilled
Pairing Harper’s creation with Wembanyama’s vertical spacing creates nightmare math for defenses. My model projects their two-man game generating +5.2 points per 100 possessions above league average by Year 3.
