Chet Holmgren vs. Evan Mobley: Can the 2023 No. 6 Pick Match Last Year’s Elite Rookie?

The Draft Paradox: One Year Apart, Two Giants

Last year’s No. 3 pick, Evan Mobley, arrived in Cleveland like a statistical earthquake. This year’s No. 6 selection, Chet Holmgren, steps into Oklahoma City with a similar silhouette: long limbs, elite rim protection, and an uncanny feel for spacing. But can he match the trajectory of last season’s defensive darling?

Let me be clear — I don’t do hype. I do spreadsheets.

Defensive DNA: Same Blueprint?

Both players stand at 7’0” (213 cm), with wingspans that make guards look like toddlers in comparison. Their defensive value isn’t just about blocks; it’s about presence — altering shots without touching them.

Mobley averaged 1.8 blocks per game as a rookie while guarding multiple positions across the floor — not bad for someone who didn’t play in college until his junior year.

Chet? He posted 1.5 bpg in limited minutes during his rookie campaign — solid for a guy playing only 28 MPG.

But here’s where data shows divergence: Mobley defended 45% of opponents’ drives, while Chet held opponents to 40% success rate on drives when he was on the floor.

Not bad for a first-year big man navigating NBA pace.

Offense: Where the Gap Widens

Now comes the real test: offensive efficiency.

Mobley shot 50/40/90 (FG%, 3P%, FT%) over his first full season — one of only four rookies since 2015 to crack that code. Chet hasn’t reached those marks yet — but he did shoot 48% from the field, better than expected for someone so tall and unproven offensively.

The difference? Mobility versus rhythm. Mobley moves fluidly between post-ups and pick-and-rolls thanks to his polished footwork and instincts gained during his time at USC under Tony Blandford’s system — which emphasized spacing and decision-making under pressure. Chet has more tools than most rookies; fewer reps under fire so far.

Still… he has that rare ability to read passing lanes mid-transition like a chess grandmaster who skipped middle school.

The Big Picture: Role & Team Context Matter More Than Rankings

Some analysts throw around “elite rookie” labels too fast. But context is king in sports analytics. The Cavs had Kevin Love anchoring rotations; they were built around ball movement before Mobley came aboard. That helped him thrive early by minimizing isolation-heavy possessions where he’d be exposed defensively or offensively outmatched. Oklahoma City? They’re still learning how to build around Chet efficiently. His usage rate sits at just 17% compared to Mobley’s 23% as a rookie. That doesn’t mean Chet is inferior—it means he hasn’t been trusted fully yet in high-leverage spots. The question isn’t whether Chet can be another Mobley—it’s whether OKC gives him enough rope to grow into that role without overloading him too soon.