Brazilian Serie B Round 12: A Data-Driven Breakdown

League Overview
The Brazilian Serie B, established in 1971, is the second tier of Brazilian football, featuring 20 teams battling for promotion. This season has been particularly competitive, with narrow margins defining most matches.

Match Highlights

• Volta Redonda 1-1 Avaí: A gritty draw where Avaí’s late equalizer (85’) salvaged a point. xG stats favored Volta Redonda (1.8 vs. 1.2), but Avaí’s goalkeeper made 5 crucial saves.
• Botafogo SP 1-0 Chapecoense: A tactical masterclass by Botafogo, who capitalized on a set-piece (62’). Chapecoense’s midfield lacked creativity, completing only 78% passes in the final third.
• Goiás 1-2 Atlético Mineiro: A comeback win for Atlético, with two second-half goals despite Goiás dominating possession (58%). My model flagged Atlético’s counterattacking efficiency (3.4 expected goals from breaks).

Key Trends

• Defensive Resilience: ⁷⁄₁₂ matches had under 2.5 goals. Teams like Paraná (2 clean sheets) are prioritizing structure over flair.
• Late Drama: 40% of goals came after the 75th minute – fitness levels are proving decisive.

What’s Next?
Watch Vila Nova vs. Goiás: Their xG differentials (+0.8 vs. -1.2) suggest a potential upset. Also, keep an eye on Criciúma’s striker João Silva – his 3.1 shots per game could break open tight defenses.