Brazilian Serie B Round 12: By The Numbers

The Analyst’s Notebook As someone who spends more time with spreadsheets than sunlight, I can confidently say Brazilian Serie B’s 12th round served up enough drama to justify my pale complexion. Let’s break down the action through my favorite lens - cold, hard data.

League Context

Founded in 1971, Brazil’s second division has evolved into one of the world’s most competitive lower leagues. This season features 20 teams battling for four promotion spots, with every point precious in this marathon tournament.

Matchday Highlights

• Volta Redonda 1-1 Avai: The round opener set the tone with a tense draw (June 17). My xG model shows both teams underperformed their expected goals - classic case of nerves in a tight mid-table clash.
• Botafogo SP 1-0 Chapecoense: A textbook example of efficiency (June 20). Botafogo registered just 3 shots on target but made one count - sometimes football really is that simple.
• America Mineiro’s Late Show: Their 2-1 comeback against Brasil de Pelotas (June 27) wasn’t just dramatic - it statistically extended their unbeaten run to 5 matches.

Three Statistical Standouts

1. Defensive Wall of the Week: Goias’ backline limited Atletico Mineiro to just 0.8 xG in their 2-1 victory (June 24)
2. Set Piece Kings: Both of Coritiba’s goals in their 2-0 win over Cuiaba (June 22) came from dead-ball situations
3. Possession Paradox: Amazonas FC won 2-1 against Vila Nova (June 22) despite having only 42% possession

Looking Ahead

The relegation battle is tightening up, with five teams separated by just 4 points at the bottom. Meanwhile, the race for promotion sees America Mineiro and Goias establishing themselves as serious contenders based on their underlying metrics.

Final Thought: If this round proved anything, it’s that in Serie B, the gap between chaos and calculated strategy is about as thin as my patience for bad analytics.