Brazilian Serie B Round 12: The Data Behind the Drama

League Context

Brazil’s second division continues to deliver unpredictable football at its finest. With 20 teams battling for four promotion spots, every point matters in this grueling 38-game season. What fascinates me most this year is how traditionally offensive teams are adapting more pragmatic approaches - a trend evident in Round 12’s results.

Matchday Highlights

The Draw Specialists (Again) Avai played two matches this round, drawing 1-1 with Volta Redonda before falling 1-2 to Paranaense. Their xG (expected goals) of 1.8 across both games suggests they’re creating chances but lacking clinical finishing - a recurring theme in my data models.

The 1-0 Kings Botafogo-SP’s narrow victory over Chapecoense marked their fourth 1-0 win this season. My tracking shows their defensive organization - conceding just 0.7 xG per game - could make them dark horses for promotion.

Late Show in Goiania Goias’ 2-1 comeback win against Atletico Mineiro featured a 89th minute winner, continuing their reputation as the league’s most clutch team (5 goals scored after 85’).

Tactical Trends

The data reveals three emerging patterns:

1. Set-piece dependency: 42% of goals came from dead balls
2. Second-half surges: 61% of goals occurred after halftime
3. Home advantage weakening: Away wins increased to 38% this round

As we approach the midway point, teams like CRB (quietly 4th) and Vila Nova (with that stingy defense) are ones to watch. The race for promotion remains wide open, and my algorithms suggest we’re in for even more surprises.