Ace Bailey: The Draft’s Most Polarizing Wing Prospect

Standing courtside at last month’s Portsmouth Invitational, I felt that rare scout’s tingle watching 19-year-old Ace Bailey euro-step past two defenders for an and-1. The 2.08m Georgia commit moves with the fluidity of a guard - until you see him attempt a crosscourt pass (more on that later).

The McGrady Blueprint

Bailey’s 17.6ppg/7.2rpg statline undersells his scoring repertoire. These GIFs showcase his three-level shot creation:

• [Pull-up midrange] Footwork mirrors young T-Mac’s hop gathers
• [Catch-and-shoot threes] 38% on NBA-range attempts
• [Post spins] Uses 91kg frame to seal smaller defenders

Defensively, his 7’1” wingspan produces possessions like [this weak-side block], reminding me of coaching against Giannis’ younger brother in Greece.

The Concerning Flaws

My Python tracking shows:

• 12.3% turnover rate on drives (82nd percentile worst)
• Just 1.3apg with a ghastly 0.68 AST/TO ratio

The tape reveals why: [This forced layup] and [this skip-pass turnover] highlight shaky decision-making. As an Arsenal supporter, I’ve seen enough ‘potential’ turn into frustration (cough Gervinho cough).

Verdict: High-Risk, Higher Reward

Bailey’s combination of size/skill is undeniably top-3 worthy. But teams must weigh: ✅ Elite physical tools (+8.3 PIPM) ❌ Questionable BBIQ (32nd percentile in playmaking)

My model gives him a 63% chance to become an All-Star…or the next Andrew Wiggins. Draft night will be fascinating.